Basically weather forecasting is the task of predicting the weather that will be observed at a future time. As one of the most important primary task of the science of meteorology, weather forecasting has depended basically on the scientific and technological advances that have taken place in the meteorology since the latter half of the 19th century.Throughout the history, any forecasting efforts that are given at any site depend solely on some of the observations that could be made at that site. Observations and predictions of sky, wind, and temperature conditions and a good knowledge of the local climate history to allow a limited predictive ability. When a forecaster predicts out a specific variable for example, the temperature on a given night in the city then he/she will require a great deal of observation and model-generated data that are available. None of the data, however, will provide a definitive prediction. The forecaster must also apply their knowledge of average climatic conditions, local microclimate variations, and typical model behavior in the current situation in order to predict the right findings.Great attention is needed to pay on weather forecasts during the times of severe events such as blizzards, hurricanes, and tornadoes. Our ultimatejob is to evaluate the weather properly, and compare it with different kinds of sources, and thenarrive at the best possible estimate for the variables of interest, such as temperature and likelihood of precipitation.
The Forecasting Process
Predicting a weather forecast basically involves three main steps: observation and analysis, extrapolation to find out the future state of the atmosphere, and prediction of some of the particular variables. One of the qualitative extrapolation techniques is to assume that the weather features will continue to move as they have been moving previously or not. In some of the cases the third step (prediction) simply comprises of noting down the results of extrapolation, but the actual prediction usually involves efforts that are beyond this.
The tools that meteorologists use for their forecasting depend on the intended range of the forecast, or how far into the future the forecast may extend. Some of the short-range forecasts, sometimes called “nowcasts,” can extend up to 12 hours ahead. Daily-rangeforecasts are usually valid for 1 to 2 days ahead; this is basically the range in which the numerical forecasting techniques have made their greatest contribution. In the 1980s, however, some of the techniques also became useful in the development of medium-range forecasts, which usually extend from three to seven days ahead. Extended-range forecasts, which can extend more than a week ahead, usually depend on a combination of numerical and statistical forecast guidance. At last, short-term climate forecasts, as like the 1 month and 3 month average forecasts depend mostly on the statistical guidance. Some of the decreasing uses of the numerical forecasts with increasing range, reflects the imperfections in the current numerical models, but it also reflects some of the extreme complexity of the atmosphere or the climate.